Live coverage as Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and the other candidates turn their attention to the southern states For the next crucial result, Republican eyes turn to ... Guam? Yes, in another sign of the desperation that the GOP bunfight has become, the candidates are actually worrying about Guam's nine delegates to the nominating convention.And ? for the first time in live blogging history ? here's a link to Guam's Pacific Daily News:
The Republican Party's contest to reclaim the White House has heated to a point where Guam partymates are getting wooed by both the Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum campaigns.Republican presidential race front-runner Mitt Romney is sending his eldest son Matt Romney to speak to Guam Republicans Saturday, said Jerry Crisostomo, co-chairman of the GOP convention on Guam.Guam Republicans will meet on Saturday to elect the nine delegates they're sending to the GOP national convention.News of Matt Romney's Guam trip was confirmed around the same time yesterday afternoon when Rick Santorum called in to speak to Guam Republican leaders.
Newt Gingrich, in between fending off calls for him to end his cam,paign ? is rampaging around Alabama telling voters that not only will he reduce gas prices to $2.50 a gallon but that the "drill baby drill" policy he wants will also pay off the federal debt. Awesome.The Montgomery Advertiser reports:Gingrich contends that the solution to rising energy costs is to open up more drilling on the Gulf Coast, more drilling in Alaska and more drilling on federal lands.He said just the royalties that the federal government could obtain from the latter would be $16 to $18 trillion, which would be enough to pay off the federal deficit."And we send $500 billion oversees for energy now, imagine the jobs we could create if we kept those funds at home," he said.Hold on ? $16 to $18 trillion? That's insane.{C} So where are we? Oh yes, Alabama and Mississippi next Tuesday, but let's not forget Hawaii or Kansas, which caucuses on Saturday.And what better time to look at some polling from Alabama:
The statewide poll conducted by Alabama State University's Center for Leadership and Public Policy showed 22.7% of likely Republican voters supported Santorum, who is scheduled to make campaign appearances Thursday in Huntsville and Mobile.Former Massachussetts Governor Mitt Romney trailed Santorum with 18.7%, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House from neighboring Georgia, with 13.8%.The telephone poll of 470 likely GOP voters showed 29.8% undecided and 15% saying they intended to support other candidates. The poll did not ask voters whether they supported Ron Paul, the Texas congressman seeking the GOP nomination.
Caveat: this poll was taken on 1 March, long before Super Tuesday.And here's another slightly elderly poll from Alabama putting Romney in the lead, from the Alabama Education Association's Capital Survey Research Center.It found Romney leading with 31.2%, followed by Santorum with 21.6%, Gingrich with 21% and Paul with 6.5%. A total of 19.8% said they were undecided.{C} Larry Sabato ? the Sage of Charlottesville ? has a fascinating piece in the WSJ, charting the key forthcoming dates in the Republican contest.Here's Prof Sabato's thoughts about 24 April, one date that may mark Mitt Romney's emergence as victor and Republican party nominee, after primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island:
Of all the remaining days on the nominating calendar, this is the one best suited to Mr Romney's politics. Four of the five races in this Northeastern bunch ? all but Pennsylvania ? should almost automatically go to the former Massachusetts governor, who can expect to win most of their delegates.Pennsylvania, where Rick Santorum's served 16 years in public office, will dominate press coverage leading up to the April 24 primaries. That race, like the recent one in Michigan, will consume three full weeks and the pressure will be on favorite son Mr Santorum. Pennsylvania has some demographic similarities to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio, which could produce a close contest if Mr Romney chooses to spend heavily. Anything but a clear victory will hurt Mr Santorum, especially given his landslide re-election loss in 2006 and fears that he couldn't carry Pennsylvania in the general election.Few events could end the GOP contest suddenly, but a Santorum defeat in Pennsylvania, coupled with a Romney sweep of the other April 24 states, is one of them.
Unrelated: Larry Sabato has the finest moustache seen on US television.{C} MSNBC's Chuck Todd has another explanation for why Mitt Romney is underwhelming:
It would be one thing if Romney were eking out narrow victories against Rick Perry or Tim Pawlenty, candidates with (at the time they were running) a serious campaign infrastructure and money or the potential for it. But it's another thing to narrowly win against candidates who don't have a true organization, who aren't well funded, and who don't have a bustling campaign headquarters.
How, for example, did Rick Santorum win North Dakota? That remains a mystery, since it seems unlikely that he had much of a political operation there. Exciting political fact of the day:That's an interesting way of looking at the Republican nomination and is a strong argument for the notion that Mitt Romney failed to live up to his front-runner status on Super Tuesday, despite massive wins in Massachusetts and Virginia, two big states.{C} Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the Republican presidential race, which takes a turn for the south ahead of polls in Mississippi and Alabama next week. Here's Ryan Devereaux's summary of where we're at today:The Republican presidential hopefuls are turning their attention to the south with primaries in Mississippi and Alabama coming up next week. Pressure has mounted to push Newt Gingrich out of the race and make room for Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney to duke it out. Santorum, for his part, has denied any involvement in any such efforts but has says he wouldn't mind if it happened. Speaking in Mississippi yesterday, Santorum said, ""If you deliver a victory for us on Tuesday, you will make this a two-person race." Newt Gingrich is also refusing to back down, though he has scrapped plans to campaign in Kansas, which is holding caucuses on Saturday. Following a victory in his home state of Georgia Tuesday, Gingrich has chosen to focus exclusively on Alabama and Mississippi.Mitt Romney has won the support of Alabama's largest newspaper. On Wednesday the Birmingham News endorsed the former Massachusetts governor as "the best bet" for defeating President Obama. Recent polling by Alabama State University's Center for Leadership and Public Policy has Rick Santorum leading Romney with the support of 22.7% of likely voters, to 18.7% for Romney. Gingrich, meanwhile, trails with 13.8%.The Obama campaign plans to release a 17-minute documentary detailing the president's first term in office. The film is directed by David Guggenheim, the man behind Al Gore's film, An Inconvenient Truth.GOP strategist Karl Rove has predicted the battle for the Republican nomination will take "months, not weeks". Writing in his Wall Street Journal column on Wednesday, Rove said "Every Republican running for president got something on Super Tuesday. Not all they wanted, but enough to convince themselves to carry on, making it likely the GOP race goes on for months, not weeks."
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